Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：现货银)

• ·关联业务往来报告表必须申报吗
• ·外币财报折算的基本原则是什么？
• ·应交税费增值税明细入什么科目
• ·互联金融概念31日主力净流出14.91亿元，润和软件、软通动力居前
• ·比特币交易所
• ·智谱AI概念31日主力净流出20.05亿元，常山北明、豆神教育居前
• ·合同取得成本和合同履约成本的区别
• ·ST易事特收盘跌2.51%，主力资金净流出2720.91万元
• ·请问白户能申请360借条吗？会不符合借款要求吗？
• ·10月31日兴银策略智选混合C净值增长0.79%，近3个月累计上涨12.17%
• ·微软也要投资比特币？
• ·工业气体概念31日主力净流入146.62万元，南大光电、创元科技居前
• ·制造业一般的税负率是多少
• ·芝麻交易所交易所国际版v6.3.9下载安装-易欧国际交易平台2023中文版下载
• ·eth什么货币
• ·多只高位股尾盘跳水，10位基金经理发生任职变动